20 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JZ
🇨🇿Jan Zajicek
ELO 1805
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zajicek
MP
🇨🇿Martin Parzhizek
ELO 1780
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Zajicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.