20 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1587
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Chalupa
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1586
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pilch🌟Chalupa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (90)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.