20 Jul · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1493
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trefny
PF
🇨🇿Pavel Fojt
ELO 1468
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Trefny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.