21 Jul · 01:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇨🇿Miroslav Necas
ELO 1439
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1455
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Necas🌟Necas covers set handicap as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.