21 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1429
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Berdych
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1385
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.