22 Jul · 01:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1648
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Louda
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Pikous
ELO 1599
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Louda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H89-67
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.