22 Jul · 00:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1551
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Louda
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1648
FormLWWWL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Regner
Fair odds · Louda
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+97
H2H67-75
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+97)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)