21 Jul · 20:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Miroslav Kowolowski
ELO 1553
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kowolowski
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1509
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Varecha stays under total as underdog 64% (28)
Fair odds · Kowolowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.