21 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DO
🇨🇿Dominik Oborny
ELO 1521
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oborny
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Milota
ELO 1507
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Oborny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.