21 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1524
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bayer
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1495
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Sobisek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (107)
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H25-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.