21 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr
ELO 1555
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Snr
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1543
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Martinak🌟Snr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (48)
Fair odds · Snr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.