21 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1638
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polasek
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1615
FormWWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pilch🌟Pilch covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.