21 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1638
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dousek
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1652
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Polasek🌟Polasek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (153)
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H7-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.