21 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1663
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wawrosz
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1652
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dousek🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (137)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.