21 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1652
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dousek
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1615
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pilch🌟Pilch covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.