21 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Josef Medek
ELO 1805
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zajicek
JZ
🇨🇿Jan Zajicek
ELO 1844
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Medek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 35% (31)
Fair odds · Zajicek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H97-138
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.