21 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1543
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Martinak
DU
🇨🇿Daniel Unzeitig
ELO 1528
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Martinak stays under total as favourite 70% (20)
Fair odds · Martinak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.