21 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1628
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zika
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1569
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Zika rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (89)
Fair odds · Zika
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H30-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.