21 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1596
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vedmoch
DP
🇨🇿Dmitro Parhomenko
ELO 1513
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Parhomenko
Fair odds · Vedmoch
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+83
H2H50-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.