21 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1385
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chalupnicek
VS
🇨🇿Vaclav Hruska Sr
ELO 1324
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Chalupnicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (36)
Fair odds · Chalupnicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H24-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.