21 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1385
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chalupnicek
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1341
FormWWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Chalupnicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (36)
Fair odds · Chalupnicek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H46-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.