21 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skotnica
ELO 1575
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skotnica
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1540
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szotek🌟Szotek stays under total as underdog 70% (43)
Fair odds · Skotnica
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.