21 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Marcel Heczko
ELO 1524
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heczko
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Milota
ELO 1507
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Heczko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H17-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.