22 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1524
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bayer
MV
🇨🇿Matej Volf
ELO 1507
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.