21 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Matej Volf
ELO 1507
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bayer
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1524
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.