22 Jul · 01:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1551
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 64% (107)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H47-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.