21 Jul · 17:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1341
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Berdych
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1429
FormWWWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+88
H2H30-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-19)