21 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1540
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chalupa
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1566
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Szotek🌟Szotek stays under total as underdog 70% (43)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.