21 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1509
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Varecha
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1451
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Varecha stays under total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Varecha
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.