21 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇨🇿Karel Kapras
ELO 1502
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hofman
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🌟Hofman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (52)
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.