22 Jul · 00:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schopf
KS
🇨🇿Karel Schopf
ELO 1575
FormWLLLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Schopf rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (31)
Fair odds · Schopf
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.