22 Jul · 02:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1648
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Louda
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1534
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 64% (107)
Fair odds · Louda
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+114
H2H48-44
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-44)