22 Jul · 00:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AH
🇨🇿Ales Hlawatschke
ELO 1546
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hlawatschke
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1501
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Hlawatschke
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H13-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.