22 Jul · 02:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1501
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tuma
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1495
FormWLWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek🌟Sobisek covers set handicap as underdog 64% (107)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H44-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.