21 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FJ
🇨🇿Frantisek Just
ELO 1581
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Just
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Varnuska
ELO 1503
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Just
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+78
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.