22 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1379
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1395
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chalupnicek🌟Regner rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (57)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H5-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.