22 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1379
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chalupnicek
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1365
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Chalupnicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (36)
Fair odds · Chalupnicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H46-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.