22 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Jaromir Cernik
ELO 1291
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Smesny
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1363
FormLWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Smesny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (43)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H21-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.