22 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1548
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Machander
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1517
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Walek🌟Walek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (54)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H13-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.