22 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1389
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pecka
VP
🇨🇿Vlastimil Pecka
ELO 1412
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pecka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.