22 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1527
FormWWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Barton
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1533
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Barton
Fair odds · Barton
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.