22 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1517
FormLLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Machander
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1548
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heczko🌟Heczko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.