22 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dmitro Parhomenko
ELO 1522
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Barton
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1533
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Parhomenko
Fair odds · Barton
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.