22 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Milan Smesny
ELO 1363
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smesny
LF
🇨🇿Lubos Forman
ELO 1344
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Smesny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (43)
Fair odds · Smesny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H13-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.