22 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1517
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skacelik
RS
🇨🇿Richard Skacelik
ELO 1570
FormLLLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Walek🌟Skacelik goes over total as favourite 67% (48)
Fair odds · Skacelik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H20-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.