22 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1395
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1383
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Madle🌟Regner rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (57)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.