22 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1533
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Barton
JP
🇨🇿Jiri Plachy
ELO 1465
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Barton
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.