22 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1497
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schwan
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Schwan
ELO 1538
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🌟Schwan stays under total as favourite 63% (19)
Fair odds · Schwan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.