22 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VV
🇨🇿Viktor Vejvoda
ELO 1564
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vejvoda
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1529
FormLLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Wagner🌟Wagner covers set handicap as underdog 80% (15)
Fair odds · Vejvoda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.