22 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PF
🇨🇿Petr Franc
ELO 1451
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Franc
MT
🇨🇿Miroslav Tuma
ELO 1447
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Franc
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.